US EditionCA gas could hit $8.44 per gallon in 2026 due to refinery closures, regulations
- An analysis conducted by a researcher at the University of Southern California forecasts that gasoline prices in California could climb to $8.44 per gallon by the end of 2026, driven by the shutdown of key refineries and the implementation of new environmental regulations.
- This projection follows refinery shutdowns at Phillips 66 in 2025 and Valero in April 2026, alongside new laws raising excise taxes, imposing fossil fuel fees, and limiting refinery operations.
- California’s refining capacity has declined by 36%, in-state oil production by 63%, and the number of refineries by 56% while gasoline demand remains high and supply becomes constrained.
- Mische explained that the addition of various regulatory expenses affecting refiners, distributors, and local operators has amplified the increase in gasoline prices for consumers, which were already elevated at $4.816 in April 2025.
- The refinery closures and regulations risk creating a gasoline deficit of 6.6 to 13.1 million gallons daily, which could disrupt multiple industries and place California’s economy in a precarious position.
67 Articles
67 Articles
Pasadena Star News
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If you’ve filled up your tank lately and felt a pit in your stomach, you’re not alone. As of April 18, 2025, the average price of gasoline in California is $4.85 per gallon—over 52% higher than the national average of $3.16. In some counties, it’s even worse, with prices hovering around $5.87 per gallon. A recent in-depth study from the University of Southern California confirms what many of us have suspected for years: California’s sky-high gas…
Supply Crunch Could Send California's Gas Prices Past $8
On the heels of my recent article outlining how California’s unique fuel regulations — not corporate price gouging — are driving up gasoline prices in the state, new developments have added urgency to that conversation. On May 6, California Senate Minority Leader Brian W. Jones (R-San Diego) sent a letter to Governor Gavin Newsom sounding the alarm over what could become an energy and economic crisis in the state. Citing an analysis by Universit…
California Price At Pump Could Hit $8.44/Gallon In ’26 Due To Refinery Closures, Regulations
By Kenneth Schrupp via The Daily Signal | May 08, 2025 A new analysis has found California gasoline prices could rise to $8.44 per gallon by the end of 2026 after the pending closure of two refineries—one-fifth of the state’s refining capacity—and the onset of new state regulations. California gas prices are already the nation’s highest, at $4.78 per gallon for regular-grade gasoline Tuesday, according to AAA. The new study from University of So…
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