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Why the China-US Trade War Truce Won’t Last

  • The United States and China agreed on May 12, 2025, in Geneva to a 90-day truce that reduces tariffs substantially on bilateral trade.
  • The truce follows repeated failed attempts since the Trump administration’s 2019 Phase 1 deal, which was never fully implemented amid ongoing strategic competition.
  • The United States reduced its tariffs on goods imported from China from 145% down to 30%, while China responded by lowering its retaliatory tariffs on US products from 125% to 10%; both countries agreed to maintain these adjustments for 90 days as trade discussions continue amid ongoing tensions.
  • The tariff reductions triggered global markets to rally, but experts emphasize that underlying issues like trade deficits, industrial competition, and geopolitical rivalry remain unresolved.
  • This agreement likely represents a temporary pause in a long-term, frozen conflict as both countries maintain strategic goals that suggest continuing trade tensions ahead.
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The Diplomat broke the news in Tokyo, Japan on Wednesday, May 14, 2025.
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